Climate Change

I want to testify today about what I believe is a planetary emergency - a crisis that threatens the survival of our civilization and the habitability of the Earth.
Al Gore, testifying on the impact of global warming before US congress.

Africa: By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change; by 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised .... By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected under a range of climate scenarios (TS).
IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Summary for Policymakers.

Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can’t afford the risk of inaction.
Rupert Murdoch

The current level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 385 parts per million. This compares with a figure of some 315ppm around 1960 .... Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that can persist for hundreds of years in the atmosphere, absorbing infrared radiation and heating the atmosphere ....Most predictions suggest that globaltemperatures will rise by 2C to 4C over the century.
Robin McKie, Climate Change in Figures, the Observer.

The last time the world was 4-5 degrees above where we are now was 30-50 million years ago, when much of the planet was a swampy forest .... the location of many species, including humans, would be radically different and many would not survive ..
Sir Nicholas Stern, author of the Stern Report on Climate Change, in his book: Blueprint for a Safer Planet (Bodley Head).

Scientists say continued emissions will cause the planet to heat up further. To work out how much, they use computer models based on the programs used to predict the weather. These models are not perfect, and struggle to simulate some features of the climate system such as clouds. To get around this, the scientists run many different versions and pool the results. The computer models predict that if emissions continue to rise at the present rate, average temperatures will most likely increase by 4C by 2100. There are uncertainties, though - for example, the planet’s oceans, forests and soils could release their massive stocks of carbon as the world warms, leading to much greater temperature rises than human emissions alone would cause.
David Adams, Environment Correspondent, the Guardian.

The phrase “tipping point” is heard a lot more from scientists. This is where a small amount of warming sets off unstoppable changes, for example the melting of the ice caps. Once the temperature rises a certain amount then all the ice caps will melt. The tipping point in many scientists’ view is the 2C rise that the EU has adopted as the maximum limit that mankind can risk. Beyond that, as unwelcome changes in the earth’s reaction to extra warmth continue, it is theoretically possible to trigger runaway climate change, making the earth’s atmosphere so different that most of life would be threatened.
Paul Brown, author of Global Warming: The Last Chance for Change

By the time global temperatures reach four degrees, much of humanity will be short of water for drinking and irrigation: glaciers in the Andes and Himalayas, which feed river systems on which tens of millions depend, will have melted, and their rivers will be seasonally running dry. Whole weather systems like the Asian monsoon (which supports 2 billion people) may alter irrevocably. Deserts will have spread into Mediterranean Europe, across most of southern Africa and the western half of the United States. Higher northern latitudes will be plagued with regular flooding. Heatwaves of unimaginable ferocity will sear continental landscapes: the UK would face the kind of summer temperatures found in northern Morocco today. The planet would be in the throes of a mass extinction of natural life approaching in magnitude that at the end of the Cretaceous period, 65m years ago, when more than half of global biodiversity was wiped out. Four degrees of warming would also cross many of the “tipping points” which so concern climate scientists: the Amazon rainforest would likely collapse and burn, as part of a massive further release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems – the reverse of the current situation, where trees and soils absorb and store a good portion of our annual emissions. Most of the Arctic permafrost will lie in the melt zone, and will be steadily releasing methane, accelerating warming still further. The northern polar ice cap will be a distant memory, and Greenland will be melting so rapidly that sea level rise by the end of the century will be measured in metres rather than centimetres.
Mark Lynas; author of Six Degrees (Harper Perennial).

Temperatures above 5 degrees would lead to human hardship and mass migration on such a scale global turmoil would be inevitable.
Sir Nicholas Stern, Blueprint for a Safer Planet (Bodley Head). < /p>

Summer Arctic sea ice is disappearing more than 80 years ahead of IPCC predictions.
Public Interest Research Centre: Climate Safety

The disturbing conclusion, documented in a paper I have written with several of the world’s leading climate experts, is that the safe level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is no more than 350ppm (parts per million) and it may be less. Carbon dioxide amount is already 385ppm and rising about 2ppm per year ....These conclusions are based on paleoclimate data showing how the Earth responded to past levels of greenhouse gases and on observations showing how the world is responding to today’s carbon dioxide amount. The consequences of continued increase of greenhouse gases extend far beyond extermination of species and future sea level rise .... We must draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide to preserve the planet we know. A level of no more than 350ppm is still feasible, with the help of reforestation and improved agricultural practices, but just barely – time is running out.
James Hansen, climate scientist and director of the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies

In the journal Science in 2004, Oreskes published the results of a survey of 928 papers on climate change published in peerreviewed journals between 1993 and 2003. She found that three-quarters of the papers either explicitly or implicitly accepted the view expressed in the IPCC 2001 report that human activities have had a major impact on climate change in the last 50 years, and none rejected it.
Royal Society; Facts and Fictions, Climate Change

It’s important to listen to what scientists have to say, even when it’s inconvenient, especially when it’s inconvenient .
President Barack Obama

If global mean temperature increase is to be stabilized between 2.0-2.4°C, then CO2 emissions must peak by 2015. The cost of such a stringent path of stabilization of the earth’s climate would be very modest, if at all a cost would be incurred. For instance, for this trajectory the cost to the global economy would at most be less than 3% of the global GDP in 2030. In fact there are so many co-benefits from such action that if these were to be fully accounted for then these might actually result in a negative cost, or a net increase in economic output and economic welfare.
IPCC Chairman, Mr Rajendra Pachauri

He [Nicholas Stern] argues that the world can cut emissions by 80% by 2050 by investing just 1% of GDP into transforming how we use and make electricity, travel and live ....With startlingly simple measures like improving insulation and recycling, energy efficiency can be improved. Electric cars and cutting down on air travel will reduce emissions from travel, industry can make massive cuts with changes to its manufacturing processes. Governments can also invest in green technologies, while encouraging their citizens to change their lifestyles through tax reform and education.
Louis Gray, Environment Correspondent, the Daily Telegraph

Can nine billion people be fed? Can we cope with the demands in the future on water? Can we provide enough energy? Can we do it, all that, while mitigating and adapting to climate change? And can we do all that in 21 years time? That’s when these things are going to start hitting in a really big way. We need to act now. We need investment in science and technology, and all the other ways of treating very seriously these major problems. 2030 is not very far away.
Prof John Beddington, UK Chief Scientist

The issue of climate change is one that we ignore at our own peril. There may still be disputes about exactly how much we’re contributing to the warming of the earth’s atmosphere and how much is naturally occurring, but what we can be scientifically certain of is that our continued use of fossil fuels is pushing us to a point of no return. And unless we free ourselves from a dependence on these fossil fuels and chart a new course on energy in this country, we are condemning future generations to global catastrophe.
Barack Obama

Climate change should be seen as the greatest challenge to face man and treated as a much bigger priority in the United Kingdom.
Prince Charles

The blunt truth about the politics of climate change is that no country will want to sacrifice its economy in order to meet this challenge, but all economies know that the only sensible way of developing is to do it on a sustainable basis.
Tony Blair

There are blueprint solutions to the problems of climate change. We need not despair or bury our heads. We have the technologies, market tools and regulatory mechanisms available. The present crisis should be seen as an opportunity for all to create a safer, cleaner and fairer planet. It is not just up to the politicians to bring this about, though. It is up to us. And now, as we approach the crucial Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December, is the time to act.
Peter Hudson, Rainbow Development in Africa.

Some Further Research:
carbontrust.org
ipcc.ch
metoffice.gov
reduceyourcarbonfootprint.com

Books:
Oliver Tickell: Kyoto 2
Chris Goodall: Ten Technologies to Save the Planet

Some Campaigns:
1010uk.org
globalclimatecampaign.org
stopclimatechaos.org
350.org
campaigncc.org
christianaid.org